Dreams & Disruptions
with Shermon Cruz, Jan 2024
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The JFS Futures Community is a space for practitioners, educators, and the Futures-curious to connect, share, create teaching & learning materials in making Futures literacy more accessible to a wider global community.
Dreams & Disruptions
A card game with Shermon Cruz January 2024
In our first session of 2024, we had the privilege to meet Shermon Cruz, who introduced his innovative futures card game "Dreams & Disruptions" to the Community. In the game, players are challenged to explore unthought-of futures through scenario-building in a world of uncertainty.
Shermon begins with…
The first exploration of randomness began with gaming. What if you don't get to choose your forces of change, much like we don't get to choose our crises? Is randomness in gaming a reflection of the unpredictability we encounter in life, including crises?
A summary from the discussions
The discussion begins with a question about how to account for irrational and insane policy choices by politicians, shifting to an inquiry about the basis of the game, "Hybrid Futures." The conversation takes an interesting turn as one participant reflects on archetypes, specifically the role of women in procreation and leadership. This leads to a discussion about the absurdity of scenarios and the need to move away from traditional, war-themed futurism towards a focus on personal relationships, family, and community, drawing on the work of Dator and Milojevic’s :
Dator (2022:79-89) and Milojevic (1999:65) demands that our images of the future must stop making reference to science fiction, war games: who has the bigger nuclear weapons, who are more powerful with an “idiotic obsession with death, killing and self-destruction”; and instead we strive to put forth “what has always been extremely important to us, personal relationships, family and community, to the societal level”. Milojevic, who champions feminising futures studies and the ‘women’s ways of knowing’ (1999:68).
Milojevic, I (1999). Feminising futures studies. Rescuing all our futures: the future of futures studies. Edited by Z. Sardar. Adamantine Press:61-71
The participants engage in a dialogue about the importance of scenarios, referencing Pierre Wack's work, and the necessity of making future images more inclusive. A question arises about the use of "Hybrid Futures" in the game and whether constructivist approaches are employed pedagogically. The discussion touches upon the role of ideologies reinforced by politicians and the demand for scenarios to be as weird as possible, following Dator's 2nd Law.
The conversation evolves into practical considerations, such as the duration of the game and the potential for incorporating competitive variations. The presenter shares that the game is meant to be an infinite one, maintaining attention on issues rather than seeking a definitive outcome. The discussion concludes with participants expressing interest in playing the game, inquiries about its duration, and a link to explore SES (Scenario Exploration System).
Based on his experience facilitating the game with bankers, Shermon shares insights into their reactions, stating that after playing the game, participants express a newfound understanding of what it feels like to imagine possibilities. He emphasizes that this experience is akin to thinking like a futurist, providing a distinctive mindset. Cruz elaborates on the distinction between traditional forecasting, which focuses on the possible, probable, and plausible futures, and futurist thinking, which extends to the preposterous, preferable, and transformative. The challenge lies in discussing and considering value judgments in preferable and transformative futures, emphasizing the role of futurists in navigating these complexities.
Overall, the conversation navigates through various aspects of the game, from its philosophical underpinnings to practical considerations and potential applications in diverse fields, such as economics and education.
Q&A Session
Besir Wrayet- Irrational Decisions and Foresight Challenges
Besir Wrayet raises a crucial question about policymakers sometimes making irrational decisions, despite efforts to provide the best analysis and feedback. He inquires about the potential inclusion of an add-on to the current approach to dealing with uncertainties in advising on risks, threats, and climate change. The question revolves around how to handle situations where rational choices may not be made, especially in leadership roles with various interests at play.
Shermon Cruz responds by acknowledging the conventional use of predictive models and probabilities to convince decision-makers to invest. He discusses the conservatism in the use of scenarios, emphasizing a cautious approach to avoid being labeled as impractical. Shermon notes the reluctance, particularly in the public sector, to embrace discussions about emergence and outliers. He provides an example of pandemic scenarios done in 2015, where decision-makers were hesitant due to perceived high costs.
Besir suggests that as crisis management evolves into resiliency and antifragility, there may be more funds and support in the long run. The conversation sheds light on the challenges of integrating randomness and chaos into foresight, with Shermon mentioning his development of a game to provoke discussions and improve randomness integration in foresight practices. The focus is on building the capacity to think in terms of emergence in complex systems.
Diana Wu David - Game Design: Decision-Maker Dynamics
Diana Wu David raises a question about decision-makers in the game, particularly in the context of leaders and archetypes. She expresses curiosity about the selection of decision-makers who will review the scenarios and disruptions created in the game. Diana explores the representation of various demographics, including the absence of non-capitalist, non-intellectual, non-military laborer personas in the decision-making group.
Shermon acknowledges the constraints in developing the game, citing limitations in terms of the number of cards that can be included. He emphasizes the game's intention to simulate societal dimensions, informed by the theory of social psychology. Shermon discusses the dominant psychology of capitalism and the challenge of encapsulating various personas within the game's structure.
Diana continues the discussion, pointing out the importance of unpacking values after playing the game. She appreciates the subjective nature of the game, allowing participants to bring their perspectives without prescribing specific definitions or personas. Shermon elaborates on the game's subjectivity, emphasizing its infinite nature and how it prompts participants to question their current values and imagine unforeseen futures.
The conversation touches on the game's role in facilitating discussions about values and the unpacking process that occurs after gameplay. The emphasis is on the subjective and open-ended nature of the game, allowing participants to define and shape the experience based on their own perspectives and values.
Samista Jugwanth - Context & Images of the Future
Samista inquires whether the game has been played in a way that involves collecting data on the output generated by people and examining the context of these individuals in relation to the futures they envision. Shermon acknowledges the suggestion, expressing interest in the idea and mentioning that while he has considered it, he hasn't implemented it yet. He welcomes assistance with collecting and analyzing the data, emphasizing the need for help in this aspect.
WenYang - Role-swapping
The discussion delves into the dynamic of different groups in the game, categorized by their interests or values. Wen Yang raises a question about incorporating more competitiveness into the game, specifically exploring conflicting dynamics between groups like labor and military. Shermon acknowledges having games or worksheets that address this suggestion, noting that it often occurs with military participants. He emphasizes the fluid nature of identity, highlighting that individuals can evolve through education and interaction, embodying multiple roles. The goal is for individuals to understand and potentially embody different psychologies. Wen Yang appreciates the idea, acknowledging the potential for the game to facilitate role-swapping and enhance communication and understanding among diverse groups.
Key insights gathered by Shermon from the 200+ gameplays:
1. There are no winners and losers in this game. D&D is an infinite game. Infinite games maintain attention to long-term issues.
2. D&D is a cooperative game sparking boundless and contextual conversations about plausible, potential, preferable, disowned, and preposterous futures.
3. The game can be played with different values and ways of knowing and perceiving the future. The game continues to evolve and so are our understanding about futures and foresight.
4. The game's potency surfaces when you play it a few times.
More about Dreams & Disruptions
We meet once a month. Our meet is a casual get together - just a space for like-minded people to hang out and talk about Futures. We welcome members to host our monthly meet and talk about topics they’re mulling over, or invite guest speakers.
This is an experimental space. If you wish to give a short talk, try out a workshop or just have a casual discussion about a certain topic, feel free to email Anisah or Lavonne Leong
We publish materials for futures studies on JFS Digital. See some postings here https://jfsdigital.org/category/jfs-community-of-practice/high-school/
This is an ever-expanding library of futures thinking teaching tools that will eventually include skills and dispositions from all over the world. These resources range from semester-long curricula to exercises that can be done in an hour or less. They are for many ages and stages of readiness, and can be used by anyone.
If you have created a tool for teaching futures thinking and want to add it to our community resource pool, please reach out to us on LinkedIn.
If you are not sure where to start, let one of us know, and we’ll make a suggestion.
JFS Futures Community has a YouTube channel and a LinkedIn page
JFSCoP Youtube
JFS LinkedIn
Community Space on Discord